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Feb 13, 2012 – 11:11 AM ET | Last Updated: Feb 14, 2012 9:46 AM ET
The Middle East could be staggering toward an all-out war between Israel and Iran as Israeli leaders consider how to respond to Monday’s apparently co-ordinated attacks on Israeli embassies in India and Georgia.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, immediately blamed Iran and its terrorist ally Hezbollah.
“Iran, which is behind these two attacks, is the world’s largest terror exporter,” Mr. Netayahu said. “The government of Israel and its security services will continue to co-operate with local authorities against Iran-sponsored global terror.”
Avigdor Liberman, the Foreign Minister, warned Israel will respond.
The dramatic escalation in tensions comes as Israel is widely believed to be considering a full-scale military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities in a bid to deny Tehran nuclear weapons.
Iran vehemently denied any responsibility for Monday’s attacks, which injured four people, including the wife of Israel’s military attaché in New Delhi.
REUTERS/Parivartan Sharma
Police and forensic officials examine a damaged Israeli embassy car after an explosion in New Delhi February 13, 2012. Bombers targeted staff at Israel's embassies in India and Georgia on Monday, the foreign ministry said, with a bomb going off in New Delhi but a second device in Tbilisi was defused.
Ramin Mehmanparast, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, went so far as to tell the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, “Israel perpetrated the terror actions to launch psychological warfare against Iran.”
Just last month, however, the Rafah news website, which is identified with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian President, threatened to take Iran’s war with Israel “beyond the borders of Iran and beyond the borders of the region.”
This month, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, threatened Israel, saying, “From now on, in any place, if any nation or any group confronts the Zionist regime, we will endorse and we will help. We have no fear expressing this.”
If Israel can prove Iran was behind Monday’s attacks, it may feel justified in launching a wide-ranging military retaliation against both Iran and Hezbollah.
In 1982, Israel started the First Lebanon War after an assassination attempt on its ambassador in Britain.
“Under international law, an attack on an embassy is an attack both on the embassy’s country and on the country in which the embassy is located. And under the charter of the United Nations, an attack against a nation’s citizens on its territory is an act of armed aggression that justifies retaliatory military action,” said Alan Dershowitz, a Harvard law professor.
In the past, Israel has regarded it as essential to respond forcefully to terror attacks as a deterrent.
Last month, Lieutenant General Benny Gantz, the Israeli Defence Force Chief of Staff, warned Iran not to test Israel’s resolve.
“We are witnessing efforts by Hezbollah and other hostile elements to perpetrate a brutal terror attack far from Israel,” he said.
On Monday, Mr. Netanyahu acknowledged Israel had already been targeted. “In recent months we have witnessed several attempts to attack Israeli citizens and Jews in several countries, including Azerbaijan, Thailand and others,” he said.
“In each instance we succeeded in foiling the attacks in co-operation with local authorities.”
“Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, were behind all of these attempted attacks,” he added.
In January, authorities in Azerbaijan arrested two people suspected of plotting to attack Israel’s ambassador and a local rabbi.
At about the same time, U.S. and Israeli officials warned of a possible terror attack in Thailand. Thai officials later said they had arrested a Lebanese man believed to be a member of Hezbollah over a plot to bomb tourists in Bangkok.
There is increasing alarm over what form any Israeli retaliation might take as it could push a low-intensity spy war involving intelligence operatives and terrorist proxies into an all-out shooting war between both countries.
If Israel were to decide to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in a bid to at least temporarily deny Tehran nuclear weapons, it may have to also launch a pre-emptive attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hezbollah is said to have more than 50,000 rockets after its brief 2006 war with Israel. It is widely expected to launch them against Israel if there is an Israel attack on Iran.
“Israeli military planners probably would prefer to pre-empt such an attack, and at least take out the most dangerous and long-range missiles before they could be launched,” said Bruce Riedel, a former Middle East expert for the Central Intelligence Agency, now with the Brookings Institution.
“That calculation argues for striking Iran and Lebanon simultaneously, in the hope that the first blows would weaken both adversaries and compel an early ceasefire. That means Israeli resources would be stretched from the start with two wars.”
Some observers fear any direct attack on Iran could trigger a catastrophic chain of events, leading to a regional war, with worldwide terrorist attacks and threats to oil supplies globally.
But if Monday’s attack was instigated by Iran, that could suggest Iran’s leaders are becoming increasingly aggressive and possibly more dangerous as international sanctions threaten their regime.
In 1992, Iranian agents blew up the Israeli embassy and a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires, killing and injuring hundreds.
Last year, U.S. officials accused Tehran of masterminding a plot to hire Mexican drug lords to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Washington by car-bombing a restaurant.
There is disagreement between Israel and Washington on the timeline required by Iran to build nuclear weapons. Now, Israel could decide it has to act quickly to prevent Iran from becoming even more dangerous.
A terrorist attack that is tantamount to an act of war could provide the justification needed for such an attack.
But given the wide-ranging political and strategic ramifications of a direct attack, Israel might opt to ratchet up its covert war, possibly by intensifying attacks on Iranian scientists and sensitive weapons research sites.
“The bottom line is that Israeli planners have to contemplate a multi-front war from the moment of a strike on Iran,” said Mr. Riedel.
“The more variables in any planning process, the more likely you will face unanticipated consequences and unpleasant surprises once the action begins. The devil is always in the details.”
National Post
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