| The sins of the son |
Hafez Assad, Syria's longtime dictator, successfully convinced his people that what was good for his Allawite family was also good for the country. He exploited the various ethnic groups’ affinity for the secular nature of the regime which at first seemed appealing and even promising • His son Bashar adopted his father's method, and took it a step further, all the way to hell.
Boaz Bismuth
Is news of the Syrian first lady's pregnancy supposed to make the Assads seem more human? | Photo credit: AP | |||||
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The Lebanon-based pro-Syrian newspaper Al –Akhbar reported this week that Asma al-Assad, Syria’s first lady, is pregnant. Al-Akhbar, which is one of the Arab world’s few remaining bastions of support for the Assad regime, confirmed a rumor that has been running rampant for weeks through the halls of foreign ministries and media newsrooms worldwide. The information was based on quotes from unnamed Arab sources that are said to have visited the presidential palace in Damascus and noticed firsthand the bulging stomach protruding from the usually gaunt first lady.
Under normal circumstances, the news perhaps would have been greeted with a great sense of joy. In the meantime, however, Israeli warplanes spoiled the celebration for the Syrian regime this past week, according to foreign media reports. If these reports are accurate, then Assad is stuck in a no-win situation. If he retaliates, he will fall soon. If he restrains himself, he will fall a little later.
The atmosphere in Syria is akin to an end-of-the-year sale. Or, to be more precise, an end-of-the-regime sale. Hafez al-Assad is looking down from above at the events unfolding on the ground. He sees how his son has managed to destroy in a decade what took the father 30 years to build. Syrians will soon mark the two-year anniversary of the uprising that began in the town of Dara’a on March 15. Since then, the country has descended into a bloody civil war that has thus far claimed the lives of 60,000 people while rendering 700,000 others refugees.
Assad is hanging on, but at a very steep price. Were it not for the current turmoil, the anticipated new addition to the family could expect to be born in Syria and raised in the presidential palace. In today’s reality, however, nobody could promise a quiet, calm birth for the Syrian first lady. These days, Damascus is not the ideal setting in which to introduce a newborn to this world.
The London-based Guardian newspaper reported this week that the most likely scenario is that Asma will have the baby delivered in the British capital, which is where her concerned parents live today. The due date is sometime in March. One can imagine what would transpire if the baby is born on March 15. Bashar, the father, may refuse to celebrate his birthday. Either way, nobody is betting that the newborn – if it is indeed a son - will be in line to succeed the president.
In an interview with CNN this past week, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that Assad’s chances of surviving in power are growing dimmer by the day. In other words, Asma will give birth to a baby, but not an heir.
The surprising news of Mrs. Assad’s pregnancy may have been the only positive development that elicited smiles within the family, particularly given the recent events that have taken shape this week in our region. This was a very difficult week, particularly for Syria and Egypt. It was especially harrowing for its people and its leaders. The “Arab winter” is currently in full throttle.
Unlike Syria, the turmoil in Egypt is in a more advanced stage given that the public is now in the process of removing a president for the second time in recent memory. In Syria, there are forces who are toiling endlessly to topple the first tyrant.
Syria’s largest city is Aleppo, which is situated in the northeastern section of the country. This past week, Aleppo mourned its fallen sons and daughters. Dozens of bodies were seen washed up on the banks of the Queig River. An estimated 68 bodies were discovered since Tuesday, all of the victims between the ages of 20 and 30. They were bound, blindfolded, and executed with a single gunshot to the head.
The images from the scene, like most of the pictures and video footage that have emerged from Syria in recent months, were enormously disturbing. The images captured the remnants of the latest massacre committed by the regime, this one out of revenge for the battles that have taken place in recent days in the town of Al-Safira. It is a town not far from the chemical weapons caches that have kept the region, particularly Israel, quite preoccupied with worry.
The seepage
This was also a week during which Israel came to grips with the severity and the danger of the possibility that strategic arms could fall into the hands of the rebels. Officials in Jerusalem grew even more concerned these past few days, with apprehension at an all-time high over a nightmare scenario in which chemical weapons somehow make their way into the hands of Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon, Syrian rebels, or supporters of Sunni terrorist groups that are offshoots of Al-Qaida.
There is a good reason why the Israeli government convened two emergency meetings over the past week. We need to look around at our immediate surroundings, paying attention not only to what is happening in Iran and its satellites, but also to what is being done with weapons and arsenals in our immediate neighborhood, namely Syria, a country that is becoming increasingly isolated. It is no wonder that the government held its emergency session in the evening, something that is considered extremely rare.
The possible transfer of chemical arms and the acquisition of those arms by terror groups constitute a cassus belli not just for Israel, but for the entire international community. It is not inconceivable that this past Monday’s telephone conversation between President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dealt with other matters besides the recent general election. Syria, obviously, was on the agenda.
Iran’s intervention this past week obviously necessitated further coordination between Washington and Jerusalem. Officials in Tehran noticed that tension in the Israel-Syria-Lebanon triangle was on the rise, which provided them a perfect opening to pour oil on the fire.
“By attacking Syria, the reactionary forces of the region and the West and those who oppose resistance against the Zionists have attacked the golden ring of resistance,” said Ali Akbar Velayati, a foreign affairs advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. “If Syria hadn’t provided logistical support to Hezbollah, Hezbollah and Hamas would not have prevailed in the 33-day and 22-day wars. Therefore, an attack on Syria would be considered as an attack on Iran and Iran’s allies."
Meanwhile, the slaughter continued unabated in Syria this week while the world continues to dither. This past Wednesday, officials from a number of donor states met in Kuwait to discuss the situation. Unfortunately, wads of cash from the Gulf are not what the Syrian people need at this moment. What they need is life, not money.
Not only are Syrians feeling trepidation these days. Indeed, Assad’s war has aroused a fair share of anxiety in the states that border Syria. Turkey has deployed Patriot anti-missile batteries near its frontier with Syria. Israeli intelligence analysts have already broached the possibility that Damascus has already transferred sophisticated warheads to Lebanon. Officials in Jerusalem are keenly aware that procurement of chemical arms by radical jihadist groups in Syria or Lebanon-based Hezbollah would dramatically change Israel’s strategic calculus.
According to the World Tribune web site, Syria used civilian semi-trailers and trucks instead of military trucks to move the arms across the border without leaving footprints. If the story is true, then it is beyond a shadow of a doubt that Israel will strike militarily. The major question that preoccupied planners and analysts this week was not if Israel will attack, but how Syria and Iran will respond.
The site also reported that flights between Damascus and Tehran have grown more frequent since mid-December. It would not be a stretch to suggest that these flights are in fact airlifts of Iranian arms to help the Syrian government. The Syrian military is focused entirely on one goal – waging all-out, uncompromising war against the rebels until the end.
Although Aleppo buried dozens of its sons, there is hope that the most recent massacre brings us one giant step closer to the end of Bashar Assad.
In more tranquil settings, Aleppo residents take pride in the fact that they live in the most ancient city in the world. According to Muslim tradition, Aleppo was the site in which Abraham gave milk to the needy - that is how the city got its original name in Arabic – haleb – which means milk. These days, however, Aleppo is far removed from the stories of One Thousand and One Nights. It is a city that is bruised, battered, and bleeding. This week, residents were heard saying that not even the Jews were guilty of crimes on a scale committed by the Assad regime.
The only thing that gives the locals comfort is the knowledge that the regime’s end is imminent. The collapse of the Assad regime is in fact the demise of the “Assad method.” The seizure of power by Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, was not just another run-of-the-mill coup in Syria or the Arab world. Assad managed to create a new method of rule. It is a method that is predicated on rule by the decree of one community, the Alawites, who constitute a minority.
Assad successfully convinced his people that what was good for his family – in the broadest sense of the word – was also good for the country. He exploited the various ethnic groups’ affinity for the secular nature of the regime which at first seemed appealing and even promising. World leaders were also initially enamored with the Lion of Damascus. Henry Kissinger labeled him “the Bismarck of Damascus,” and former President Jimmy Carter referred to him as “the modern Saladin.” What a great promise indeed.
The man who earned all of this effusive praise may have been a gifted tactician, but he was no more than a mediocre strategist. Jean-Pierre Filiu, who served as France’s deputy ambassador to Damascus during the reign of Hafez al-Assad, writes in his recently published book “New Middle East” that Bashar’s father worked tirelessly and radically to preserve the status quo. What interested Assad most was the stability of the regime. He was less concerned with the stability of the state, even if it meant exacting a heavy toll from the entire nation.
Assad was smart enough to protect the regime’s integrity and preserve the status quo by pursuing a calculated foreign policy. He kept his cards close to his chest, whether it was the Lebanese card or the Palestinian card, the Iraqi card or the Shi’ite card. How ironic is it that the Assad regime ascended to power in 1970 and immediately took steps that were tremendously popular with the public, including lower prices of goods and outlawing the secret services.
The elder Assad also granted cultural autonomy to the Kurdish population while distributing land to farmers, who expressed their loyalty in return. The only thing that Assad asked in return was to make all of the decisions on his own. It was Assad who insisted on determining the composition of the 173-member National Assembly which first convened in February 1971. This body unanimously nominated Assad as the only candidate fit to stand election for president the following month. Not only did Assad win the election, but he garnered a whopping 99.2 percent of the vote and elected to a seven-year term.
Hafez al-Assad would remain in power until his dying days. In the 1992 elections, he improved upon his earlier showing by winning 99.8 percent of the vote. I was in Damascus after he died. I accompanied the funeral procession. I saw Syrians who were saddened by his passing. The Assad method succeeded in winning hearts and minds.
The gravest damage caused to the Assad method occurred on January 21, 1994. This was the day when his son, Basel, who was anointed as the eventual successor, was on his way to visit his brother Majid in Frankfurt. Basel drove his luxury Mercedes with excessive speed and recklessness along the road leading to the airport. His trip ended with a fatal car accident that left the entire country in shock. The government declared a three-day mourning period.
After the mourning period, streets, town squares, and sites were renamed after the beloved son of the president. Bashar was summoned to return from London so that his father could begin the process of grooming him to take over. After years in which Bashar devoted himself to becoming an ophthalmologist, he suddenly found himself enrolled in the Homs Military Academy. To no one’s surprise, Bashar completed his studies with honors. In fact, he was first in his class.
On my visits to Syria in the late 1990s, I distinctly remember the billboards depicting the likeness of Hafez al-Assad, his late son Basel, and Bashar in his sunglasses. All three of them were watching me as I moved around various parts of Damascus.
The Syrian capital, a wondrous and riveting town, may have been willing to do without these three faces constantly peering down at the city’s residents, but Assad’s method necessitated close contact with the local population. Heaven forbid if the citizens of Syria dare forget who’s in charge.
The heir who ruined everything
On June 10, 2000, the elder Assad suffered a heart attack while he was speaking on the telephone to a Lebanese colleague. On that day, the Syrian parliament had convened to rubber-stamp its approval of reducing the minimum age for a candidate to stand for president from 40 to 34. The next day, Vice President Abdel Khalim Khaddam nominated Bashar Assad to be president. The constitution was tailor-made to suit the new leader. The international community had high hopes for the young president. France’s then-premier, Jacques Chirac, was eager to show Assad the ropes.
It wasn’t long, however, that the West and the Syrian people discovered that Assad Jr. had no intention of altering the method which was bequeathed to him by his father. On the contrary, the method of rule was handed down to the son so as to ensure him many long years in power. Bashar never really intended to institute reforms, as he originally promised upon assuming office. The private banks that he pledged to allow to operate in the country never came into being. The administration never underwent the necessary modernization. Publicly owned companies were constantly on the verge of bankruptcy, and thus barely functioned. Officially, Syria spoke of openness, but the diplomats stationed in Damascus cabled to their bosses back home that Assad the son was no different from Assad the elder.
Assad did everything in his power to portray himself as reformist not just to his people but to the entire world. Even his marriage to Asma in 2001 was calculated. The financial advisor who lived in London was the product of a bourgeois Sunni family from Homs. Assad’s associates thought that this was the ideal way to appease this ethnic group. His brother, Maher, was also wed to a Sunni woman. Those in the Sunni community, however, preferred that the Assad family leave their women alone and instead marry those from their own Alawite sect while granting the Sunni majority greater freedom.
Assad the son inherited the system of rule perfected by his father. It was a destructive method rather than a constructive one. In other words, the Assad method waged a fierce struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization which today threatens to unseat Bashar. Paradoxically, however, the Brotherhood pursued a jihadist course of action outside of Syria, namely in northern Lebanon and Iraq.
This was how the method could be used to threaten and even harm Washington’s interests. The only problem was that it came back to haunt Assad. The movement of 1.5 million Iraqi refugees into Syria allowed radical elements, including Palestinians, to set up a base from within. These groups undermined the stability of the Syrian regime by applying pressure on the suburbs near Aleppo as well as those surrounding Damascus. Now Assad is fully aware of how dangerous it is to play with fire.
As mentioned, however, the problem is not just Assad’s or Syria’s, but that of the entire region. The clock is ticking on the Assad method of rule. Now, just one question needs to be resolved: Where will the Assads’ newborn come into this world? When that day comes, will the infant’s father be alive to witness the birth?
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