Militant attacks in developed countries 'increased by 650 percent' last year

Militant attacks in developed countries 'increased by 650 percent' last year

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The impact of terrorism.

Institute for Economics and Peace/The Washington Post

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By RICK NOACK | Special To The Washington Post | Published: November 16, 2016

LONDON — We already knew that 2015 was a bad year (and that 2016 might not be much better). But a new report now shows by how much 2015 was worse in terms of militant attacks in the West. Although fatalities caused by such attacks declined by 10 percent last year worldwide compared to 2014, the death toll in OECD countries increased by 650 percent. Members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) include many developed nations.

It was the second-deadliest year in terms of militant attacks in recent history, according to the Institute of Economics and Peace, which releases an annual "Global Terrorism Index."

Despite the dramatic increases in OECD countries, most of the world's attack fatalities remain concentrated in poorer nations, mainly in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

Private citizens and their property have been disproportionately affected by the rise in attacks. Whereas the number of killed civilians has sharply increased since 2011, fatalities among soldiers, the police or government officials rose far more slowly.

That geographical imbalance becomes even more apparent, based on what the report's authors called the "impact of terrorism." Measured by fatalities as well as economic fallout for citizens of the affected countries, the world's hardest-hit nations were in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

The reason why militant attacks have received so much more international attention in recent years, however, is probably the increasing vulnerability of more developed nations.

"In the developed countries which are part of the OECD, we saw a sharp increase in attacks in 2015, compared to the previous year," said Daniel Hyslop, research director of the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace. "Particularly affected were France and Turkey, but also other countries such as Germany and Denmark."

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In three years Islamic State and affiliated groups have killed nearly 30,000 from terrorism. That is a similar number to what Al Qaida and affiliated groups have killed over the last eight years. Source: Institute for Economics and Peace.
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Whereas the U.S. has had most attacks and attack plots between 2014 and mid-2016 among OECD countries, fatalities in France vastly exceeded those in the United States. According to Hyslop, American authorities were better prepared for the threat level -- preventing some possible mass-casualty incidents.

One of the key questions following militant attacks has been whether the Islamic State directed them from Syria and sent operatives back to conduct them, or whether they were the result of so-called "lone wolf radicalization." The latter refers to isolated individuals or small groups of people who are not in direct contact with militant groups.

Scientists focusing on the group dynamics within militant groups or "lone wolf cells" disagree on how much of that radicalization process occurs online. Several leading researchers have argued that it is a social phenomenon and that most attackers who were assumed to have acted alone had in reality received support or encouragement from groups or individuals.

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According to the "Global Terrorism Index," the vast majority of Islamic State-claimed attacks were directed by the group.

Many of the attacks targeted the United States, which has spent more money than any other nation on anti-ISIS airstrikes in recent months. The overall daily costs associated with those airstrikes increased from $9.2 million per day in June 2015 to $12.1 million per day in July 2016.

The report also points a spotlight at another threat which has received far less attention than the Islamic State since 2014. Al Qaida and its international affiliates remain active. There were 12 Al-Qaida-affiliates in 2015, down from 16 in 2011.

Despite the decrease in Al Qaida affiliates, the group continues to cause destruction and death. The Institute for Economics and Peace researchers estimate that over the last eight years, 30,000 people were killed by Al-Qaida-affiliated groups. It took the Islamic State only three years to kill the same number of people, however.